Texts of General Interest (link)
Dr. James Manos (MD)
November 5, 2022
(Updated: December 3, 2022)
The global energy crisis
Image (free to use): Warning notice in Dublin, Ireland, from Bord Gáis. Located on Saint Margaret's Road in north county Dublin (April 22, 2020). Author: Cograng. Uploaded by the user: Cograng. Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gas_underpipe_warning_notice.jpg
Although it had no adequate energy alternatives, the West deteriorated the energy crisis by sending funds and arms to Ukraine, thus perpetuating the war, despite the Russian president's threat to use nuclear weapons!
The overreaction of the West
After Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe and the USA overreacted by imposing unprecedented sanctions against Russia. But it is still a question of why Europe did not act the same after the numerous military interventions of the USA that were also characterized by crimes against humanity. It seems that Russian imperialism counts more than American! The USA has funded with colossal amounts and supplied costly weapons to Ukraine against Russia without charge. Also, it has recently decided to intimidate China by financing and selling arms to Taiwan!
By feeding the war in Ukraine, the West increases the risk of WW3!
European leaders act as if the war is not between Ukraine and Russia but with Europe. The USA used Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a proxy war with Russia. NATO members followed this proxy war, but Europe was not obliged to do so.
Like the USA, Europe is feeding the war by sending funds and arms to Ukraine, including expensive missiles and anti-missile systems, tanks, surface-to-air and anti-tank missiles, etc. In this way, the West feeds the war in Ukraine and increases the risk of a nuclear war, as Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons.
It should be mentioned that Russia possesses more nuclear warheads than the USA, including intercontinental hypersonic missiles that the US military has limited capacity to shoot down with its ballistic missile defense system.
The sanctions on Russia causing the energy crisis
As expected, the European and American sanctions on Russia made Russia decrease natural gas supplies to Europe in some cases directly, such as in Bulgaria and Poland, and others by pretending various defects and damages at the pipelines. The outcome was for Russia to limit the amounts of gas in Europe.
The restriction of natural gas from Russia caught Europe by surprise. But it should not, as Europe imposed sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with funds and arms. So, Russia's reaction by decreasing natural gas came expectedly.
It is unbelievable, but the electricity price in Europe is connected directly with the natural gas price. It is determined at a stock market in the Netherlands, meaning that speculators manipulate the price. Thus, the electric power companies used the war to speculate and become richer! Because of the war, they took advantage of the high gas price to increase the electricity bills and make money!
The insanity of lockdowns and curfews that preceded the energy crisis
During the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic the epidemiologists irrationally imposed worldwide lockdowns and curfews. In Europe, countries had not experienced curfews since the Nazis' occupation in WW2! The low mortality rate of the virus did not excuse those extreme restrictions, as if it were for Ebola, in which case-fatality rate exceeds 40 percent! The public's instructions on wearing a protective mask and keeping social distancing should be enough to deal with the pandemic and avoid curfews that kneeled the economies. The states had to pay colossal amounts, most of them debts, to compensate for the financial catastrophe.
Eventually, because of the coronavirus measures, the countries were in a fiscal crisis when the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022, causing a global energy crisis and recession. About the COVID-19 pandemic, you may read my article Several issues that arose during the coronavirus pandemic: an opinion οverview
The aftermath of the energy crisis
The energy crisis caused a global economic depression, as the extravagant electricity and gas bills brought the population to its knees. The high energy cost also made goods, including supermarket goods, more expensive, while consumers could only afford to buy their essential needs.
The energy crisis caused inflation rates to soar, and the forthcoming recession is expected to increase poverty. Banks, by raising interest rates to curb inflation, have hampered growth and initiated a death spiral.
Russia and Ukraine are the most critical grain suppliers worldwide. Along with the energy crisis, global famine is anticipated as the war impedes the transfer of grains from Ukraine via the Black Sea. Moreover, the lack of fertilizers (primarily made in Russia) and grain as animal food have worsened matters.
The failure of Europe to find sufficient energy alternatives
The European leaders have yet to decide on a definitive and sustainable solution. Their first decisions focused on weaning from Russian energy. They also chose to exclude Spain and Portugal from the measures, as they had different suppliers. They also excluded Hungary, which is highly dependent on Russian gas, while their far-right prime minister is friendly to Russia!
The costly American LNG and the recklessness of the OPEK-plus
The USA has used the war to sell its liquefied natural gas (LNG) and earn money! However, as an alternative energy source, American LNG is extravagant as it is sold four times more than in the US mainland because of the inflated cost of LNG carriers. At the same time, the OPEK-plus oil producers decided, despite the disagreement of the US administration, to decrease oil production, which deteriorated the crisis. Their purpose is to use the energy crisis to increase their profits! Another reason is that they do not wish their reserves to become extinct, especially those in Saudi Arabia.
The EU remains divided and manipulated by Germany!
The crisis showed no unity, but each European Union (EU) member state made its own agreement with oil and gas-producing countries. Once again, Germany defied the common European interest and cared only about the German people, subsidizing them with the colossal amount of 200 billion euros to counteract the energy crisis.
Russia still provides less natural gas to Europe than in the past, as there is no embargo or price cap. However, this will be catastrophic as Europe has yet to find sufficient energy alternatives. The amounts of gas from Qatar, Azerbaijan, and the Arabic peninsula need to be revised to cover the vast demands of the continent. Eventually, on December 2, 2022, the European Union reached a deal for a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil. However, there was a disagreement about the price cap limit on Russian gas, as Germany insisted this be high!
The misconception about green energy
Renewable energy sources, such as sun and wind, still need to be feasible to provide enough energy, as they are complementary, with a few exceptions, including the vast wind farms in the Baltic Sea. Solar panels are unrealistic in cloudy Central and Northern Europe.
Green energy is alternative and complementary. It may save domestic energy, but more is needed to cover a country's needs. Some experts say that future energy solutions will comprise nuclear power and the utilization of hydrogen to a greater extent.
Who currently wins from the energy crisis, and who will finally win?
The USA and China are the only ones currently winning from the energy crisis. With an increased national debt (especially to China) and a high inflation rate, the USA's economy is expected to stay the same. The energy crisis has caused a global recession characterized by high inflation rates, decreased global production, and reduced consumption. All these mean that all will lose! After all, the USA has entered a recession period. Selling its expensive LNG to Europe is insufficient to boost the US economy. Drilling and extracting shale gas as an alternative to global needs is costly, whereas making its strategic reserves available is suicidal for the American economy.
The British economy is also doomed. The change of several prime ministers briefly worsened the crisis, showing that the UK handled things irrationally and ineffectively, as all Western countries.
Regarding China, it may grow its profits in the short term but not in the long term as the global recession becomes deeper. Although it uses the North Korean missile threat to intimidate the USA, it highly depends on Taiwan's microchips. At the same time, Taiwan is no longer willing to remain under Chinese guardianship.
Epilogue
To sum up, the only reasonable solution for the West to tackle the energy crisis is to start negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Peace talks are not easy, as the Russian president stubbornly refuses to withdraw his army from the occupied regions in Ukraine. Peace is also undermined by the West, which is still feeding the war by funding and supplying Ukraine with arms.
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