Texts of General Interest (link)
Dr. James Manos (MD)
September 22, 2018
(Updated: February 15, 2022)
(Updated: February 15, 2022)
Is Brexit a catastrophe for Britain?
Who predicted it?
Image (free to use): At the front of a demonstration against Brexit in Manchester, a float showed a multi-headed chimera with the faces of Theresa May and three leading Brexit campaigners: Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, and Brexit Secretary David Davis. It bore the inscription "Brexit is a monstrosity" - "Let's stop it." The float was made by Jacques Tilly and his team. The photo was taken by Robert Mandel (October 1, 2017). Author: Robert Mandel, UK. Uploaded by the user Kaufkraft. Source: Wikipedia. Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brexit-is-a-monstrosity-float-2017-10-01-in-manchester-photo-robert-mandel.jpg
[Update (February 15, 2022):
On January 31, 2020, Britain abandoned the European Union after months of Parliament discussions, often ridiculous with MPs jeering and yelling. The Parliament and court sessions showed that things are less organized than many believe in the UK, as it has no written constitution!
The UK's withdrawal was followed by the coronavirus pandemic that caused chaos globally. It obscured the ramifications of Brexit as the entire world focused on containing the pandemic. There was economic stagnation as the lockdowns confined people at home preventing transactions, trade, and currency flow.
Eventually, in 2021, the massive vaccination of most of the populations against the deadly virus led to the resetting of the global economy. In February 2021, in most countries, lockdowns were lifted. At the end of the summer, things in the UK returned almost to normal. But there were still issues. The chaos during the pandemic overclouded these issues in the British economy that eventually came out.
A factor that made things worse was the enormous cost of the pandemic on the National Health Service and the pandemic's cost that hampered the global economy. However, the European Union's colossal financial aid to its member states has ameliorated this economic loss. Because of Brexit, the UK still needed to receive this money.
UK's recent participation in the AUKUS alliance, along with the US and Australia, further undermined its relationship with the EU, which was unaware of this security pact aimed against China. Tensions with France also worsened, not only because of the illegal migration but also for fishing. France and Britain deployed even navy patrol boats to Jersey in a dispute overfishing and overfishing rights!
In September 2021, the UK faced shortages in oil supplies, as there were insufficient fuel tanker drivers! There were graphic brawls between civilians at the gas stations. Some guys even pulled knives! Eventually, Britain deployed the army to distribute oil! The strictness of the UK law prevented many European truck drivers from working in the UK using an EU passport.
Things worsened as the natural gas price soared, affecting the cost of all goods, including electricity. The lack of truck drivers also caused supermarket product shortages! Currently, there is a consideration that these shortages will increase.
Production in Britain is negligible as it produces nothing else but services! But for me and some others described in this text, the aftermath of Brexit was expected and inevitable! Brexit will eventually doom the British economy.
Finally, the decadence of Britain is something that everyone will discern when visiting the UK. Not only, as mentioned, it is a country without production, but also it is unsafe to stay outside after 9 p.m. as gags of thugs may stab you. The drunken youth on the streets is also pathetic. The cultural decline is so characteristic that almost all international British series have vintage themes, such as Sherlock Holmes and Towers. They avoid showing the contemporary global society!]
Below is my original text
Is Brexit a catastrophe for Britain?
Instead of staying in the European Union (EU) and fighting for the European dream, the British people decided irrationally on the referendum of June 23, 2016, to leave the EU (Brexit; from Britain + exit). Brexit has also raised concerns such as the EU borders with Northern Ireland and the disputed by Spain British territory of Gibraltar. Additionally, Scottland disagrees with the idea of leaving the EU. At the same time, this is not an option for England, where many "Bremainers" do not have the right to vote as indigenous citizens. Namely, they are foreign students, workers, employees, etc.
Along with Scottland, Northern Ireland is not keen to dissociate from the EU. But the UK is less united than thought previously. England is the dominant state that lives at the expense of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Historically England occupied these regions. Not surprisingly, they are funded less than England and excluded even from statistics that usually refer to England and Wales. In the UK, England itself makes the decisions. Surprisingly, the US does not share the same concerns about the impending catastrophe after Brexit.
Along with Scottland, Northern Ireland is not keen to dissociate from the EU. But the UK is less united than thought previously. England is the dominant state that lives at the expense of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Historically England occupied these regions. Not surprisingly, they are funded less than England and excluded even from statistics that usually refer to England and Wales. In the UK, England itself makes the decisions. Surprisingly, the US does not share the same concerns about the impending catastrophe after Brexit.
Ironically, Britain wishes to keep a commercial relationship with the EU and negotiates to decrease the sum, $40 million, it must return to the EU after Brexit! Already Britain must return eighty-seven million pounds for ferry contracts. The sheer tenacity to Brexit, whatever cost, is an imprudent decision predicted to shake the British economy.
The British sterling pound has already lost much of its value regardless of the opportunity for the British to buy cheaper goods. The British economy will lose competitiveness, its exports will go down, and it will be less attractive to foreign investors. Inflation is anticipated to increase while the growth of the British economy has already been inverted, and a deficit may not be avoided.
In any case, the UK is no longer the British empire that rules the world with its myriad military interventions in the occupied regions. It is not even a naval superpower. Nowadays, production in Britain is negligible, as the only significant goods the UK exports that come to my mind are the GSK drugs and the Rolls Royce jet engines for commercial airplanes! In other words, today, Britain produces nothing else but services! The reason is that many industries and enterprises shut down as they found a better economic environment in countries with cheap labor.
The recent protectionism of the US will render the British economy less dependent on the US capital. Perhaps the US convinced Britain to insist on Brexit as the negative implications of this irrational decision were well-known from the very first! The predictions of the financial future using specific algorithms are analyzed below. After all, it would be naïve for the British to expect the US to be keen to help Britain when it started a trade war against the planet! That means that Britain will be more alone than ever in this venture! Its alliance with the US does not mean that the US will back Britain's economy.
The ramifications of Brexit will not be only economic but also political. There is a lot of tension and disappointment regarding the British prime minister's failure to achieve all the goals Britain wished for. Consequently, Britons have much to lose and few to earn from Brexit!
The decision for Brexit at the referendum was irrational. In October 2018, the British Prime Minister announced that the UK would allow only skilled migrants to migrate after Brexit while she implied that the entrance of migrants would dwindle to a tickle! The UK, like Germany, took advantage of the migration surge for labor and specialized personnel. However, over the last few years, the number of migrants in Europe has been high. Perhaps that for some Britons worked as a motive in the referendum to choose to leave the EU! Overall, Brexit may even cause the dissolution of the UK as it will shake its tenacity with Northern Ireland and Scotland.
So, maybe the imprudent decision of Brexit is partly related to the fact that in the EU, heaps of people who were European citizens had the right to migrate to the UK, and this brought the British social services (from what I call "benefit collectors") and the healthcare system to its knees. However, there were plenty of cheap workers and employees available.
Martin Armstrong, the financial futurist who predicted the decision for Brexit
The economic ''forecaster'' Martin Armstrong was the only one who predicted Brexit in the referendum of June 23, 2016. He was sure about the decision of the Britons 6 months before the referendum! Armstrong is an economist, founder of Armstrong Economics, and former Chairman of Princeton Economics. Armstrong invented an 'Economic Confidence Model' used for decades with high success in predicting events.
The 'economic confidence model' is an economic cycle theory of Armstrong. This model proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years or 3,141 days. At the end of each cycle, a crisis follows an economic improvement until the next 8.6–year crisis points.
Armstrong's predictions are based on trends in buying and selling shares on the international stock markets. These trends may be extremely slight. However, his formula assesses even the most minor trends. He noticed that transactions in the global stock market that may pass unnoticed precede an economic crisis. For videos referring to Martin Armstrong, you may visit
Armstrong's theory practically means that when companies or speculators buy or sell shares, this may indicate an impending fiscal crisis. For instance, shortly before the referendum in the UK to decide on Brexit, the Hungarian-American investor George Soros bet one hundred million euros on the decline in the shares of Deutsche Bank. The brokerage firm Soros Fund Management LLC sold about seven million previously borrowed shares. After Soros' bet,
In 1992 Soros brought the economy of the UK to its knees. He is known as "The Man Who Broke the Bank of England" because of his short sale of ten billion dollars worth of pound sterling, making him a profit of 1 billion dollars during the 1992 "Black Wednesday UK currency crisis." Soros founded the Soros Foundation in 1984, initially to fight communism. In 1991 in the US, he founded the Open Society Foundation (OSF), which supported human rights, including the rights of migrants. However, some accuse him of encouraging migration in Europe that between 2010 - 2020 was uncontrolled and chaotic. For Soro's warning about the dire financial consequences of Brexit in the UK, you may watch the following videos:
Assessing the economic transaction of Soros that bet to Brexit, mentioned above, formulas such as Armstrong's could suspect the decision of Brexit to be 'yes,' and the financial repercussions that will follow Brexit. It should be stated that apart from substantial changes in inflation and the foreign currency rate, the economy of the UK is at a standstill.
Formulas such as Armstrong's may predict the outcome of Brexit. However, in real life, and not just the theory of formulas, things are more complicated, and the accuracy of this formula should be proven statistically. In any case, governments and agencies with this or a similar formula will benefit from prediction. Armstrong's formula and his novel ideas caused problems with justice. He was imprisoned for a while but was eventually released from jail. He later attributed this to a setup by the US government that, according to Armstrong, wished to have access to his formula!
The method that Armstrong invented considers the financial trends in the stock market related to selling and buying shares. He also believes that stock market transactions preceded historical financial crises and political turmoil. That means that knowledge of history is vital to interpreting the formula. Armstrong uses his method to forecast the near future economic events. As mentioned above, Armstrong noticed an about 8.6 years cycle between crises. A monetary crisis may be followed by catastrophic events such as wars, famine, political turmoil, etc. So, a financial crisis is a socioeconomic crisis.
Overall, Armstrong invented an algorithm that allegedly predicted the economic future, although not 100% of his predictions were accurate. In addition to his algorithm, several similar formulas related to "economic confidence models" have been developed to predict the financial outcome. However, the pioneer of financial futurists is Armstrong, who now works as a financial advisor.
Conclusion
As a writer, I agree with Armstrong and Soros that Brexit may prove a fateful decision that will eventually ruin the British economy. It may cause several other problems leading even to the separation of Scotland and North Ireland. The cost of Brexit from sums that need to return to the EU is colossal and proves that the "yes" decision has a price! As a financial hub, London is not enough to support the British economy. In the UK, production has decreased, while competitiveness is questioned. Today, global production has moved to developing countries such as China and India, where labor is cheaper than in the West.
Thanks for reading!
Reference - Links (Retrieved: July 3, 2016):